Breaking into the Chinese market with a traditional console release is no easy task, but Nintendo seems to be off to a good start. What can we expect from the system's future in China? London equity firm Pelham Smithers has shared estimates and expectations, which you can find below.
- they expect 2 million to 4 million Switch consoles to be sold in China by March 2020
- may see 3 million and 6 million the following year
- software sales will range between 6 million and 12 million in the current period and 15 million and 30 million by March 2021
- China could contribute between 11.6 billion yen and 23.1 billion yen to Nintendo’s operating profit this year
- China could contribute between 27.8 billion to 55.6 billion yen in the next year
- forecasts a ratio of three game purchases for each hardware unit sold in both years
- assumes Tencent takes a 30% share of software sales income
- all of the hardware revenue goes to Nintendo, and that the two companies split the marketing costs


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